Republicans didn’t just win total control of the federal government last November. They also emerged holding a record number of governorships and retained their overwhelming dominance of state legislatures. There are now only five states in which Democrats have a “trifecta” — control of both legislative chambers as well as the governorship — compared to 24 for the Republicans. That’s two fewer such states than Democrats had held before the election, which was in turn the fewest they’d held since the Civil War, when there were only 35 states.
Fortunately for the Democrats, one of those trifecta states is the most populous and economically powerful in the country. Additionally, California has, by far, the largest number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S.: 2.4 million out of about 11 million total. Moreover, three-quarters of Californians oppose mass deportation measures of the kind that President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for, and nearly two-thirds believe immigrants who are already here should be able to apply for U.S. citizenship. California is now simultaneously the welcome home (relatively speaking) to more than a fifth of America’s unauthorized residents, and one of the last strongholds of a besieged Democratic Party.
A collision between the Trump administration and Democratic lawmakers in Sacramento is inevitable. California lawmakers are counting on it. Today the president is expected to sign an executive order authorizing construction of his vaunted border wall, and to withhold federal funds from so-called “sanctuary cities” like Los Angeles and San Francisco. Since November, in anticipation of actions such as these, state legislators in California have been rushing to pass a slate of new laws to put the state’s undocumented population as far out of reach of federal authorities as possible, and to give them at least a modicum of protection from summary deportation once they’re ensnared by Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.
Here are the ways state lawmakers are preparing for the coming showdown.
NON-COOPERATION WITH ICE
Shortly after Trump was elected, Los Angeles Police Department Chief Charlie Beck declared that his officers would continue to adhere to the department’s long-standing policy of not assisting federal agents in deporting immigrants. Beck referenced Special Order 40, a directive from 1979 that prohibits LAPD officers from questioning people about their immigration status.
The LAPD’s hands-off approach to immigration enforcement is part of why Los Angeles is considered a “sanctuary city.” But despite Special Order 40, the department in fact routinely collaborates with ICE, whose agents and the LAPD conduct joint operations together. The LAPD shares intelligence with ICE, and LAPD officers have rounded people up on raids ostensibly unrelated to immigration, then allowed ICE to take custody of those arrestees for the purpose of deportation. Outside of the LAPD’s jurisdiction, the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department has allowed ICE agents to operate inside county jails.
Immigration attorneys and immigrant-rights advocates have criticized this kind of cooperation between local police forces and federal agents throughout the Obama administration. Now, with Trump pledging to deport two to three million immigrants — the equivalent of the total number of removals through eight years of record-setting deportations under Obama — California lawmakers are finally proposing to put an end to the practice.
A bill introduced last month by Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León of Los Angeles would bar state, local and school police officers from pursuing or helping federal agents track down people for immigration violations. That includes sharing information with ICE that’s gathered in databases such as California’s “CalGang” system, which purports to track gang affiliations. The bill would also stop law enforcement from helping the feds put anyone on an identity-based registry, such as Trump has proposed for Muslims living in the United States. In effect, the bill would make California a sanctuary state.
Passing this bill would throw a pretty big monkey wrench into Trump’s deportation machine. Without active, concerted assistance from local law enforcement, it’s hard to imagine the federal government having the intelligence or the sheer manpower to track down millions of undocumented California immigrants. “Trump’s deportation plans really depend on cooperation or voluntary assistance from states and localities,” Jessica Karp Bansal, an attorney with the National Day Laborer Organizing Network, told me. “This bill just says no. We’re not using our local resources to assist in deportation.”
NO DATA SHARING
De León’s bill would also prevent state agencies from collecting information from people beyond what they need to perform their official duties, and from sharing that information for any reason other than fulfilling the services they’re tasked with.
In an era of Big Data, this might be one of the most significant requirements of the entire package of legislation. One immigration attorney told me that there are probably two to three million undocumented immigrants who the government can already track down easily through biometric data gathered from prior interactions with the state, whether through criminal convictions or simply going to the DMV.
It’s unclear how many and which state agencies have already shared their data with ICE, though we know that law enforcement agencies have done so as a matter of course. However extensive the practice has been, de León’s bill would work to put an end to it.
DUE PROCESS FOR DEPORTATION DEFENDANTS
Under federal law, non-citizens have no legal right to government-provided lawyers in deportation proceedings — there is no public defender system in the immigration courts. Most defendants, unable to afford an attorney, are forced to represent themselves. A 2015 study of over 1.2 million deportation cases between 2007 and 2012 found that just 37 percent of defendants had counsel, and only 14 percent of defendants who were in detention did. Having a lawyer makes a difference – with legal representation, detained defendants were up to 10.5 times more likely to avoid deportation.
The Central American refugee crisis, which peaked in 2014, provided example after example of what “due process” can look like without the guarantee of legal representation. When I reported on the subject for Capital & Main two-and-a-half years ago, Lindsay Toczylowski, currently executive director of the Immigrant Defenders Law Center, told me: “I’ve seen infants going into court. I’ve seen a five-year-old girl questioned by a judge while she’s sitting in a chair big enough so her feet don’t even touch the floor.” Ahilan Arulanantham, deputy legal director with the American Civil Liberties Union of Southern California, and senior staff attorney at the ACLU Immigrants’ Rights Project, described the process as “a joke.”
Last month, State Senator Ben Hueso of San Diego introduced a bill that would require the state to guarantee legal representation to immigrants who are in detention and facing removal proceedings by contracting or subcontracting out to nonprofit law firms. The bill would also establish a legal defense fund that could take donations from private foundations to pay for the lawyers.
Pro-immigrant municipal and county officials are also creating legal defense funds at the local level. In San Francisco, where an estimated 44,000 undocumented immigrants live, Supervisor David Campos has proposed that the city and county put $5 million toward establishing such a fund (the measure has become bogged down in a dispute with the mayor over whether the funds should go largely to the city’s Public Defender’s office or exclusively to private nonprofit community legal-services groups). In Los Angeles, the county has voted to contribute to a $10 million legal fund for immigrants in removal proceedings; the city is expected to take a similar vote.
IMMIGRATION LAW TRAINING FOR PUBLIC DEFENDERS
Another bill, introduced by East Bay Assemblymember Rob Bonta, sets up centers to train public defenders in immigration law. When undocumented immigrants are charged with crimes, their plea deals can often create unexpected problems related to their immigration status, even when they might result in a lighter criminal penalty. Public defenders who are versed only in criminal, and not immigration, law can unwittingly advise clients to agree to accept charges that end in deportation. Bonta’s bill aims to solve this problem.
The immense power of the federal executive can be dangerously abused, especially when a prickly chief with autocratic tendencies and single-party control of all three branches of government sits atop it. But rounding up, detaining and deporting millions of people is a hard enough task even with pliable and obedient state and local agencies to work with. In California’s case, these agencies are soon likely to become not just unhelpful, but legally obligated to recalcitrance. And these agencies happen to serve the largest concentration of undocumented immigrants in the country.
Open, unbridled confrontation with a hostile federal government is an unenviable scenario to be in. But so is having the core commitment of your entire presidential campaign depend, in large part, on the decisions of people who are committed to defy everything you stand for. The emerging showdown between Sacramento and Washington over the fate of millions of California residents will be forced into a standoff, a compromise or an epic political battle.
Published in Capital & Main:
P resident-elect Donald Trump hasn’t yet sworn his oath of office, but his announced policies have already thrown a Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors meeting into pandemonium.
Yesterday, supervisors met to hear public comments and to vote on a measure to create a new Office of Immigrant Services, and to direct a civilian review board to oversee policies on the handling of undocumented immigrants in county jails by the L.A. Sheriff’s Department. It was pretty humdrum stuff, compared to what state legislators are doing.
But that’s not what you’d guess from the reception the hearing received.
Seated before an audience of hundreds in their sleek auditorium the size and shape of a movie theater, with a bevy of cameras surrounding them like a firing squad, the supervisors struggled to slog through a long series of dry presentations by county bureaucrats on the measure, followed by over a hundred oral comments from the public.
Every five minutes, from some corner of the room, a clamor of cackles, chants or boos erupted, either from the large contingent of immigrant rights activists in the crowd, or from the only slightly smaller throng of Trump supporters decked out in red T-shirts and “Make America Great” baseball caps.
“ICE out of L.A.!” a dozen pro-immigrant activists chanted at the assistant sheriff, after he testified that ICE is in county jails “on an almost daily basis.”
The pro-Trump crowd, mostly seated together on one side of the aisle, met the chant with noisy boos. They turned their live-streaming cell phones, held perpetually aloft in front of their faces, in the direction of the perpetrators. “Kick them out!” they yelled to the supervisors.
The outbursts and counter-outbursts repeated themselves another half dozen times through the half hour or so of reports by county officials, initiated first by one side, then by the other, like dueling fans at a USC-UCLA football game. Over and over, Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas, who presided over the meeting, warned that offenders would be ejected from the room, his threats sounding increasingly weary and empty with every repetition.
T hen it was the public’s turn to recite their comments. The majority of them, by far, favored the resolution, which was mildly pro-immigrant. But the handful of outraged voices aligned against it did score points for creativity.
One middle-aged woman who identified herself as an L.A. public school teacher accused Democrats of smuggling millions of undocumented immigrants into California in order to turn them into child prostitutes.
A middle-aged man invoked Vice President John Calhoun and the Nullification Crisis of 1832 to charge each of the supervisors of being Confederate sympathizers for putting “state’s rights” before federal authority in their support for “sanctuary laws.” A young man from West Covina complained that his city’s switch to district elections, made to help increase Latino representation in city government, showed that California was becoming an “apartheid state.”
A weathered-looking woman declared that California was becoming “a petri dish for globalists,” and called for Trump to “intervene in California’s affairs.” The pro-Trump audience members clapped and cheered. Ridley-Thomas pleaded once again for quiet.
Another commenter explained that the Mexican drug cartels are lashing out, upset about being deported. The argument didn’t make much sense, but was greeted with a hearty “Deport them all!” from one Trump voter.
Finally, after two hours, Ridley-Thomas made good on his threat. He declared that the Board was going into executive session, which meant that the entire audience was barred from the room. The auditorium emptied.
The proposal passed by a 4 to 1 vote, except for the part about oversight of the sheriff’s department, which was supported unanimously. A few hours later, with a week and a half left until Trump takes office, President Obama gave his farewell speech. He deplored the deep divisions in our country, rallying his supporters to defend political pluralism, and to safeguard the Constitution against intolerance and autocracy.
T oday, California legislators returned to their jobs in Sacramento, facing a new year and, for the Democrats, a distressing new reality: their first session under the incoming presidency of Donald J. Trump.
Last November, in an election that turned traditional political allegiances upside down and threw at least two “reliable” blue states to the GOP, California continued its long march to the left, bringing even Orange County into the Democratic column for the first time in eight decades.
Had the election gone as pretty much everyone expected, this year, Sacramento lawmakers would have been preparing to further expand their bank of pathbreaking legislation to slow down climate change, protect immigrants, restrict gun access, extend labor protections, and advance other progressive goals.
Instead, there’s only one overriding political imperative for California’s Democratic supermajority: Resist Trump.
As Trump’s agenda rolls out over the first 100 days of his new administration, the period during which presidents traditionally seek to put legislative “points on the board,” Californians can expect to see a slew of countervailing bills emerge out of the State Capitol, touching everything from healthcare access to the civil rights of Muslims. With the Democrats in Congress stuck in a bicameral minority and with Chuck Schumer looking ready to play nice with the new president, whether we like it or not, California is now at the center of the fight to stop Trump.
Depending on how you look at it, the new spirit in California is one of defensiveness or of defiance. This morning, Democratic leaders announced that they were retaining former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder to represent them in the many fights they expect to have with the Trump administration. The team Trump is assembling in the White House represents “a very clear and present danger to the economic prosperity of California,” Senate Speaker Pro Tem Kevin De León told The New York Times.
De León has made his intention to resist Trump particularly clear when it comes to immigration. Along with Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, Senator Ben Hueso, and Assemblymember Rob Bonta, he has introduced new legislation designed to provide a layer of protection between federal law enforcement and California’s immigrant communities.
Expected to be voted on prior to Trump’s inauguration, these bills will prohibit state and local police forces from cooperating with ICE, create a fund to provide free legal counsel to every immigrant facing deportation charges, and train public defenders to assess immigration-related risks facing their clients in criminal courts. Officials in San Francisco and Los Angeles are bolstering those protections at the county and municipal levels with measures to provide local legal defense funds for immigrants. Defending these initiatives against a hostile Trump administration will inevitably be the top priority and overriding focus of Attorney General nominee Xavier Becerra, whose confirmation hearings begin next week.
The landmark environmental achievements California has made under Governor Brown (and under Schwarzenegger before him) are likewise threatened by the agenda of the President-elect, whose fossil-fuel-friendly cabinet appointments indicate an imminent wholesale abandonment of the global effort to prevent, or at least mitigate, a future of cataclysmic climate change. Brown has loudly proclaimed the state’s intention to go it alone on global warming, even if it means creating a foreign policy for the state separate from that of the country as a whole.
Addressing fears that Trump might cut earth science research by NASA and end Department of Energy funding for the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and other California labs that study climate change, Brown had fighting words for Trump. “We’ve got the scientists, we’ve got the lawyers and we’re ready to fight. We’re ready to defend,” he told a conference of earth scientists last month. “And, if Trump turns off the satellites, California will launch its own damn satellite.”
In the Hunger Games world of Trump’s America, California is now District 13. Today is the start of what’s likely to be a bruising battle between Sacramento and Washington, DC, which will not let up for at least the next two years.
The picture above, tweeted out last night by Politico co-founder Mike Allen, is one of the saddest images I’ve seen since Election Day.
— Mike Allen (@mikeallen) December 19, 2016
Here are a couple more gems that followed.
— Mike Allen (@mikeallen) December 19, 2016
— Mike Allen (@mikeallen) December 19, 2016
— Mike Allen (@mikeallen) December 19, 2016
The occasion of these tweets, in case you haven’t heard, was the off-the-record cocktail party Trump threw for his traveling press corps — the same reporters he mocked throughout his campaign, and continues to call a bunch of liars, along with the rest of the media. The same reporters who watched Trump single out one of their own at three separate rallies in front of his hopped-up crowds, knowingly and deliberately putting her physical safety at risk. These reporters were invited to Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida resort, to chat with him for a half hour over drinks, on the condition they don’t tell their readers (us) anything about what he says. Mike Allen thought we might be more interested in pictures of the fancy drapes at his exclusive beach club than his answers to boring policy questions, I guess.
It’s hard not to hear the utter glee in Mike Allen’s voice that pervades these tweets. This isn’t Mike Allen presenting Exhibits A through D of the utterly depraved way in which Trump manipulates his critics and seduces them into servility with cheap theatrics and mid-shelf champagne. This is Mike Allen reveling in it.
The defensive response from Mark Caputo, Politico’s Florida correspondent, while the gusts of the dust storm that Allen’s tweets kicked up blew at 100 miles per hour on Twitter, is perhaps even more pathetic.
Trump shouldve had a press conference or 2 by now, but are reporters supposed to foot-stomp & refuse to talk to him off record as a result?
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) December 19, 2016
The answer to Caputo’s question is yes. Obviously, yes. When a president refuses to meet with reporters in public and on the record, openly lies about things that stoke hatred and can get people hurt, and discredits the very notion of independent journalism, you don’t meet with him on his unprecedentedly anti-democratic and lop-sided terms. You don’t go and treat yourself to his roast beef with Lay’s potato chips or whatever garbage that is in the spread he put out for you, ask him whatever questions you had that you’re keeping secret from the rest of us, and then dutifully refuse to tell the public anything about his answers. Why do journalists covering the President-elect of the United States need this explained to them?
Trump has been flogging the media for almost two years now. More, if you include his birther crusade. Now, by accepting his terms — seaside wining and dining and a photo op for your Twitter followers in exchange for keeping your mouth shut — Trump’s traveling press corps has signaled their submission to his dominance over them. They have internalized his message to them — an incredible one for a reality show media creation whose path to the White House was made possible solely and exclusively through his years in front of network TV cameras — that they need him but he doesn’t need them back. They have telegraphed to Trump that he owns them now.
They might not see it that way, but it doesn’t matter how they see it, because from everything we know about Trump, we can be sure that’s how he sees it. And if he sees it that way, then behold the new rules of engagement for relations between the next Washington press corps and the President of the United States for the next four to eight years, at least.
Take another look at the picture. This is the indelible portrait of what Speaking Truth to Power now means, under President Trump.
A few weeks ago, I met with a family of Syrian refugees at their temporary home in Anaheim, California. Sixteen members of the extended family had fled the country together, and now were living under a single roof. One couple slept on the floor of a tiny bedroom, next to their four children, who shared a bed. The grandparents slept in the hallway. The grandfather told me their living conditions were worse than at a refugee camp.
The family came from Homs, an industrial city whose residents were among the first to join the peaceful protest movement that eventually became the Syrian Revolution. The grandfather, who was a member of the city’s Local Coordination Committee, the civilian administrative apparatus of the revolution, told me he was present for the very first hour of the first protest in Homs. His son was arrested by the regime and tortured for five months before they fled. While he was in prison, their home was bombarded. The family was driven underground, and then into exile, first to Egypt, then to the United States.
The family’s story tracked the history of Syria’s path from protest to revolution. That history has been told many times. But given the level of confusion and indifference in the West to the nearly incomprehensible catastrophe that has unfolded over the last five years, it’s worth retelling it many, many more times.
The uprising is usually traced back to the moment in 2011 when a group of mischievous teenagers in Daraa spray painted an anti-regime slogan on the wall of a school. “Your turn, Doctor,” the graffiti read. The “doctor” in question was Dr. Bashar al-Assad, the country’s president, or more accurately, its tyrant and dynastic leader. “Your turn” was a reference to the revolutions overturning dictatorships all over the Middle East at that time, at the height of the Arab Spring.
The regime arrested 15 schoolboys for the crime and tortured them mercilessly, beating them, burning them, and ripping out their fingernails. When the boys’ parents demanded their release, they were told to forget about them. “Sleep with your wives and make more children,” the fathers were told. “Or send them to me and I’ll do it for you.”
A country whose people had been terrorized by their government for generations was set aflame by the news. People gathered in the streets to protest the regime. They were unarmed, carrying only banners. That didn’t stop the military from firing on them with live ammunition, killing dozens. Nor did the regime’s murderous response stop the protests from swelling, not just in Daraa, but in Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Douma, Hama, and in other cities and throughout the countryside. The demonstrations began each week after Friday prayers in the mosques, not for any religious reason but simply because that’s when and where people routinely gathered. The demands of the protesters were liberal and secular: more political freedom, and more economic equality in a country in which half of the nation’s wealth was in the hands of five percent of the population, and in which wealth and opportunity were distributed to Baath Party loyalists by the President’s patronage machine.
The impetus for the protest movement was the arrest and torture of the boys in Daraa, but of course the seeds of revolution were much older. They began with Bashar al-Assad’s neoliberal “reforms” of the economy. Bashar inherited his rule over the country after the death in 2000 of his father, Hafez, who was also a tyrant. As a soft-spoken, Western-educated opthamologist, Syrians hoped that Bashar would bring compassion and political liberalization to their country. But beginning that year, Assad privatized farm lands, which led to peasant evictions, cut subsidies to food and fuel and dismantled the social safety net, which further immiserated the poor, and liberalized real estate, which shifted ordinary Syrians out of decent housing and into slums that were emerging around the cities like mushrooms after rain. What Syrians experienced as economic dislocation the regime celebrated as “modernization.” But throughout this “modernizing” process, the old, crude, feudal political structure of state repression overseen by Hafez persisted unchanged: the kind of apparatus that was capable of torturing schoolboys and gloating about it to their families.
The uprising was violent from the very beginning, but the violence was in one direction only: the state inflicting it upon unarmed protesters. That changed when soldiers in the Syrian army began to defect. Unwillling to bend their consciences to fear or loyalty, a growing number of SAA troops abandoned their posts and took their weapons with them. Knowing that the consequence of their arrest would be death, they turned their guns against the regime as much for personal self-preservation as for defense of the civilian communities they had re-joined. With guns pointed now in both directions, and with the Assad regime completely unwilling to entertain any of the protest movement’s demands, the uprising entered a new phase. It had become a revolution.
Assad knew that a secular revolution against his tyrannical rule was an existential threat, since such a vision was capable of uniting Syrians across sectarian lines, and of galvanizing a consensus of world opinion against his rule. Thus, from the start, it was his imperative to jihadize the opposition. He began this process in 2011, by releasing 1,500 Salafists from his prisons. Among those released were founding members of Jabhat al-Nusra — Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria — and two future key leaders of ISIS. As Assad unleashed the full force of his military on the secular Free Syrian Army militias that had mobilized out of the protest movement and his own army’s defectors, he steered his battalions away from the jihadists, allowing their networks to metastasize. In theory, the jihadists were committed to the fall of the regime; in practice, their first priority was to clear the field of competition and commandeer the popular revolution. Soon, the FSA found itself fighting on two fronts: against the regime on the one hand, and against ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra on the other.
The FSA was composed, in the main, of “soldiers” who had been school teachers, farmers, electricians, pharmacists, janitors, and bus drivers before the revolution, along with a small contingent of SAA defectors. Syrian society had always been largely secular; religious extremism was a fringe movement there, never a broad mobilizing force. The FSA, with its secularism and roots in the early uprising, had a monopoly on credibility with ordinary Syrians who opposed the regime. But as the war dragged on, it became increasingly obvious that the jihadists — in particular Jabhat al-Nusra (ISIS was too far beyond the pale) — with their funding from the Gulf states and their inflow of war-hardened foreign fighters from Iraq and Chechnya and Afghanistan, were capable, unlike many FSA contingents, of actually defending their cities and villages from the professional armies of Assad and his allies, Iran and Hezbollah.
In their desperation, it became possible for Syrians to entertain the possibility of making common cause with the jihadists, for the time being, as a matter of survival, and rid themselves of the extremists later. That distasteful wager became inescapable after Obama allowed Assad to cross his “red line” and use chemical weapons against civilians with impunity. Obama’s retreat was the moment that convinced Syrians once and for all that the international community — aside from meager and intermittent arms supplies to the FSA orchestrated by the CIA, usually upon the condition that they train their sights on ISIS instead of Assad — would never ride in to their rescue. They were on their own, and could either tentatively ally themselves with Al Qaeda terrorists or be annihilated. It was a Devil’s Bargain; there was no way around it. It was a question of life or death.
That decision, if you can call it that, proved to vindicate Assad’s cynical gambit. The “marbling” of the FSA with al-Nusra and other jihadist contingents muddied the morality of the entire revolution to observers in the West — observers, it should be noted, whose governments had done nothing to help the opposition when it faced the prospect of extermination, and whose inaction created the vacuum that Al Qaeda eagerly stepped into. For every call for solidarity with the revolution, questions were now raised about who the opposition really was, whose geopolitical interests it really stood for, whether we were being told the whole truth about them. The left-wing media, at outlets like Salon, Alternet, and Electronic Intifada, have played an especially nefarious role in this respect. Over time, doubts about the righteousness of the revolution became wholesale conspiracy theories on these websites of a Western-backed “regime change” plot against Assad, complete with staged rescue operations and faked reports of atrocities by covert shills pretending to be civilians under bombardment. This counterrevolutionary narrative reached its crescendo even as Russia entered the war and began dropping incendiary bombs on neighborhoods and targeting schools and hospitals, bringing the level of suffering and death to world historical proportions.
This week, after four years under opposition control, the east side of what was once Syria’s largest city, Aleppo, finally fell to the regime. As reports of atrocities crowded the headlines of the “mainstream” media, the conspiracy theories of the “alternative” media flooded the internet in tandem, both echoing and echoed by Russian state-owned propaganda outlets like RT and Sputnik, impugning every eyewitness, adding a touch of murkiness to the sudden clarity with which millions of people around the world finally beheld the scale of Assad’s monstrousness.
Aleppo was exceptional in Syria in that it was where the opposition was the freest of jihadist control and perversion. That did little to stop Assad’s apologists on the left from portraying it as a terrorist stronghold, even as its population was massacred. These apologists have small platforms, but their voices are intensified by the ignorance and indifference of much of the world to what’s happening in Syria. When you know next to nothing about a subject, it doesn’t take much to confuse you. And all these concocted counternarratives really need to do is to confuse, not necessarily to persuade. Confusion is enough to impede solidarity and derail the consensus necessary for concerted action. With all of Aleppo now under regime control, Assad’s war machine will move on to Idlib. Surely its demented apologists will follow it there.
I haven’t spoken to the family in Anaheim since eastern Aleppo surrendered to Assad. I’m not sure what I’d ask them if I did. From a world away, they’ve watched Aleppo fall, and with it, the revolution that started for them with a demonstration in Homs and ended with a sad and transitory existence in a strange land in Southern California. I wonder if they believe they’ll ever return to their ravaged home in Syria. I wonder if they’ll ever want to.
A couple of weeks ago, I objected to certain slogans coming out of the protests against Trump that implied he was an illegitimate president. If those of us who oppose him are going to be forced to spend the next four years defending the rules, procedures, norms and institutions of democracy from a potential autocrat, I argued, we have to start by respecting those things, which meant recognizing Trump as the legitimately elected President-elect.
Now, with the intelligence reports of Russian interference in the election building a head of bipartisan steam, I’m not so certain anymore. The legitimacy of President-elect Trump has shifted from settled fact to an empirical question. Unfortunately, the evidence underlying the answer to that question is highly classified, which is why Democrats and a handful of Republicans have been calling for investigations and for the declassification and public disclosure of the CIA and FBI findings.
Today, more Congressional Republicans jumped on board with the call for an inquiry. Those Republicans include Senator Mitch McConnell, who was presented with the agencies’ evidence prior to Election Day and responded to it by threatening to accuse the White House of playing politics with intelligence should they have made it public. Paul Ryan is also on board.
Of course, any investigation will be controlled by Republicans, as the majority party in both chambers. Republicans will dictate the timeline and the zeal and the overall direction of the effort, and the calendar and witnesses for hearings. They’ll be able to turn the inquiry on full blast and then tamp it down to a trickle and back again at will, like a spigot.
McConnell insists that “this cannot be a partisan issue.” But partisanship will inevitably enter into the inquiry, and it is more likely to come from the party that McConnell leads, the one that can actually dictate the course of the investigations, than from the Democrats, who can’t.
Trump may be the leader and the President-elect of the Republican Party, but that doesn’t mean he’s trusted by the establishment leaders he spent his entire campaign belittling, and whose free market orthodoxy he pilloried more effectively than any Democrat in living memory. Trump’s economic cabinet appointments must come as a great relief to Paul Ryan, but it never hurts to have something punitive to wield just in case the President changes his famously capricious mind about whatever deal they’ve undoubtedly made to sign Ryan’s precious deregulatory, tax-cutting, austerity-imposing fiscal agenda into law — especially given what a risk that agenda poses to Trump’s coalition.
Controlling an investigation into potentially treasonous activity is leverage, indeed. It’s a powerful tool for Congressional Republicans to force a bullying, recalcitrant president back into line. Even one from their own party.
Which makes the advent of an investigation into Russian election tampering good news for Republican leaders — but not necessarily so for the rest of the country.
T here’s a whole genre of hot takes devoted to scolding the public for overreacting to news out of the presidential transition that’s of allegedly negligible importance, in particular, Donald Trump’s wacky tweets.
Wow, it’s not until you step away for a day that you realize political Twitter immediately takes every outrage to 10 (I’ve done this too)
— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) December 8, 2016
The Trump-specific danger of this is that when it’s time for an actual 10-level outrage (and there will be many), people will be inured https://t.co/uw2E3xidEo
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) December 8, 2016
We saw the same kind of dismissiveness all through the campaign every time the Russian interference charge came up (still do, actually), often from the same people who clung to Neera Tanden’s every utterance as if her tweets could move armies.
The implication is that competition for public attention is a zero-sum game, and that articles and cable news segments and social media posts about Trump’s outrageous tweets are empty fluff that come at the expense of the real news about the incoming President, such as his $25 million Trump University lawsuit settlement, or the extremists he’s appointing to his cabinet, or the Republicans’ plans to gut Medicare and repeal the Affordable Care Act. A lot of people even believe that Trump’s Twitter feed is a trap he’s set to distract us from the big stories he doesn’t want the public to notice.
But here’s the thing: Trump’s tweets matter. They matter a lot.
The height of the tweet-to-distract theory accompanied Trump’s tweets last month scolding the Hamilton cast for being rude to Mike Pence. On the surface, it did seem like a silly thing to get worked up about, given the juggernaut of reaction the transition team was putting into place to steamroll the rights of immigrants, women, Muslims, racial minorities, the earth, and the human species in general.
But what would have been frivolous prior to Election Day takes on a whole new weight from the future leader of the free world. The Hamilton tweets showed that as President-elect, and, by all indications, as President of the United States, Trump is perfectly willing to single out critics personally, rebuke them publicly for voicing opinions unfavorable to him, and summon his millions of followers to do the same.
Maybe you can argue that the cast of Hamilton are celebrities and public figures, that since they have a little bit of star power with which to stand up to the President-elect of the United States, he’s within his rights to defend himself against their criticisms. But yesterday, Trump singled out Chuck Jones, a local union leader for the Steelworkers in Indiana, by name, and basically blamed him (and presumably people like him, though he didn’t say that), personally, for decades of job flight from the United States. Since then, Jones has been receiving thinly-veiled death threats:
“Calling me names, wanting to know if I have children,” he said. “I better watch out for myself, and they know what kind of car I drive, that I better watch out for my kids.”
Jones isn’t a celebrity. He’s not a public figure. He’s not a Democratic Party bigwig or a member of Congress or a famous cable news pundit. He’s just somebody who disagreed with Trump’s characterization of the deal he and Mike Pence made with Carrier, and was in a position to know something about it. But Trump draws no distinctions between a critic like Jones and a critic, like, say, Hillary Clinton. His attack apparatus is indiscriminate, and it has only one setting: destroy.
Given the near-shooting over the “Pizzagate” lie, if Trump keeps this up, it’s only a matter of time before somebody gets hurt. But even more dangerous than that is the damage that Trump’s individualized, frontal attacks are likely to have on dissent overall. As a candidate, Trump showed no compunction about calling out journalists by name, knowingly putting their personal safety at risk:
At the rally in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, Trump howled about the dishonest media, calling out Tur by name. “She’s back there. Little Katy. She’s back there,” Trump said, referring to a grown woman as “little.” Trump continued, calling Tur a “third rate” reporter and her tweets a “lie.” Tur writes that the crowd began booing her, quickly turning on her “like a large animal, angry and unchained.” The Secret Service walked Tur to her car and that, Tur notes, is when the reality of the “incident sank in.”
Since Trump singled her out, Tur says that she’s been on the receiving end of threats and an endless stream of harassment on social media, another aspect of covering the Trump campaign that’s, by now, familiar to a number of female reporters, including Megyn Kelly, Julia Ioffe, and Michelle Fields.
Unlike Trump, journalists who are not in war zones don’t walk around with bodyguards, or have half-million-dollar-a-day security details guarding their personal residences at taxpayer expense. How much personal risk is the average reporter going to be willing to take on to do their job over the next four years, under a vindictive President willing to name them individually on a platform in which doxxing and death threats are routine occurrences? How about a regular person like Chuck Jones, who isn’t even a reporter
Policy isn’t the only thing presidents do that has consequences. Norms matter, too. Trump has no regard for the norms that have historically constrained the way that American presidents handle criticism. Trump has the norms of an autocrat — someone like Putin.
Trump’s Twitter feed is a glimpse into how the next President will impose his will on a free society. That’s not a distraction; it matters. A lot.
The National Review makes an interesting point about the global populist wave rolling over Europe and the United States:
Most of these parties have only the occasional issue in common with each other or with the Trump insurgents. What unites them is not ideology or policies (which are usually responses to specific national situations) but a raw spirit of revolt. If they were to attain power, they would start to look very different as they put their ideas into effect.
Not to sugarcoat what’s happening in Europe, but it’s a mistake to reduce it to something as simple as a “far right” political takeover of the continent. Doing so limits one’s imagination of how the left can respond to it.
The five stars of the Five Star Movement in Italy, which is the clear winner in this week’s failed constitutional referendum led by soon-to-resign Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, stand for the following: publicly owned water, sustainable transport, sustainable development, right to internet access, and environmentalism. Not a single one of those planks can be mistaken for an inherently “right wing” or “conservative” value.
And yet the collapse of the Italian government (which is almost a yearly occurrence in that country) is widely understood as of a piece with Brexit, the popularity of Marine Le Pen’s Front National in France and the rise of the Alternative for Germany party next door, the ascendance of the Danish People’s Party, and other “far right” tides of change on the continent, as well as the election of Donald Trump in the United States.
And of course they are of a piece: each of them is a response to the failure of traditional political parties, with their bureaucracies and dogmas and entrenched leaders, to respond adequately to the complex and evolving cultural and economic changes brought by globalization.
But the way those failures, and the uprisings they provoke, look in each country varies widely by those countries’ respective cultures, political configurations, and economic circumstances. In no way is it pre-ordained that the outcome of a populist political shake-up in a given nation is a right wing takeover.
Even the Front National, so often castigated as “fascist,” has distinct left wing elements in its message and platform. Le Pen has put her party’s xenophobia, chauvinism and Islamophobia in the service (rhetorically) of defending the welfare state and safeguarding France’s commitment to tolerance and plurality. The FN may be a far right party, but only by co-opting parts of the left has it achieved the strength to seriously contend for national power.
The Five Star Movement, with its anti-immigrant bent, is hardly progressive (its leader is frequently compared to Mussolini). But nor is it “right wing.” It’s both, and it’s neither. To force it into one category or the other is to default to the antiquated political framework that parties like it are in the process of displacing. Doing so practically commits you to misunderstanding the whole phenomenon.
To an American observer, the lesson to draw from this puzzle is that there is nothing inherently right-wing about the populist wave that ushered in Trump, either. For a number of reasons that should set off alarm bells for Democrats, it was the right instead of the left that ultimately succeeded in capitalizing on the surge of discontent and organizing voters around it. But as Bernie Sanders’ unexpected success in the primary showed, racism, Islamophobia and anti-immigrant hysteria were far from the only vehicles with which to shape and direct that anger. The Democrats just happened to choose as their nominee the most prominent representative of the ancien regime at exactly the time when the old order was being toppled throughout the Western world.
Anthony Scaramucci — his friends call him “the Mooch” — is a blow-dried, gold ringed hedge fund trader straight out of Central Casting. Last summer, when Donald Trump dismissed finance people like him as parasitic swindlers who “move around papers,” Scaramucci snarled that Trump was “another hack politician” who would “probably make Elizabeth Warren his vice-presidential nominee,” considering his “anti-American” insults to the finance industry. “You’re an inherited money dude from Queens County,” the Mooch taunted Trump on the Fox Business Channel, doing his best impression of a guy asking another guy if he’d like to step outside for a minute.
Today, Scaramucci is a member of Trump’s presidential transition team.
Scaramucci’s journey from trash talker of presidential nominee Trump to economic advisor to President-elect Trump tracks Trump’s own abrupt transformation from firebrand populist outsider to Wall Street-friendly insider — an about-face that wasn’t just predictable but repeatedly predicted. As a man without an ideology, Trump is not a change agent but an opportunistic pragmatist. His goal is not to reshape the American economy or even the Republican Party, but to use the presidency to build his global brand and enrich himself and his family in the process. People like Scaramucci and Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s choice for Treasury Secretary, a former Goldman Sachs mortgage banker who made his fortune and his legend exploiting the pain of the foreclosure crisis, may have been odd choices for the grenade-lobbing, drain-the-swamp-and-burn-the-whole-system-down presidential candidate version of Donald Trump. But they’re just the right kind of advisors for the self-dealing, oligarchical, President-elect version of Trump: the real Trump, the one who will be crowned Leader of the Free World next month.
Trump is doing so little to conceal his betrayal of the populist message that got him elected that some of his most hardcore fans — Breitbart readers — are already showing, in the words of one, “buyer’s remorse.” Here are a few comments from a recent Breitbart write-up about Mnuchin:
Donald Trump is a bankster puppet. Anyone who believes a Goldman Sachs, George Soros, and Bernie Madoff crony will do anything to help the middle class is a fool.
Remember back in the day when Trump held Goldman Sachs up as representative of the corrupt, manipulative, greedy Establishment?
There’s this thing called “Buyer’s Remorse” that a lot of Breitbart readers are about to become increasingly familiar with…
It’s too early to be optimistic, but the cleave that Trump’s recent appointments have opened up in the conservative-populist coalition he built over the course of the campaign may be good news for those who have been fearing an enduring hard right realignment in American politics of the sort that has been seen in countries all across Europe.
As Sasha Polakow-Suransky reports in his indispensable and unsettling account of the rise of the European far right, parties like the Front National in France and the Danish People’s Party in Denmark have spent years, even decades, slogging their way out of the political wilderness by making themselves more palatable to former Social Democrats, the kinds of people who regard themselves as compassionate, tolerant, and committed to social justice, but who have grown disenchanted with the established, bureaucratic parties that were once the radical vanguard of those inclusive values. The FN and the DPP, Polakow-Suransky shows, have labored to jettison the baggage of anti-semitism, homophobia, and fascism and have re-positioned themselves, remarkably, as the guardians of progressive politics — by casting Muslims and immigrants as the true enemies, the barbarians at the gates of secular, humanist Western civilization. Like Trump’s analogue in the U.S., this disturbing configuration may be philosophically contradictory, but it wins elections.
The United States is not Europe, and there are many important reasons why the politics of reaction will take a different shape here than there. But if Trump were to follow the lead of his European counterparts, we could expect to see the emergence of a lasting electoral bloc of disillusioned Democrats that is economically left-wing but culturally chauvinistic and politically anti-pluralist and authoritarian. By now, that should be a familiar combination to American voters: a variation of it was mobilized by Reagan, and it was arguably a key part of the electoral coalition that won Trump his presidency. But unlike in Europe, it has never really outlived the fleeting mobilization of an election cycle and cohered into a stable, enduring political movement. Trump, with his orthodoxy-eschewing, cross-party appeal, could be the catalyst for that transformation, which could change American politics forever.
His cabinet appointments, however, suggest that he is choosing a narrower, easier, less transformative path, the kind of path that guys like Anthony Scaramucci and Steven Mnuchin and firms like Goldman Sachs can happily join him on, with none of the showy displays of contempt that the Mooch performed for the Fox Business Channel’s cameras last summer.
Yesterday, Scaramucci gave The New York Times his decidedly amiable take on the President-elect’s new, Wall Street-stacked economic cabinet:
The working-class people of the United States, they need a break. And we need to switch them from going from the working class into the working poor into what I call the aspirational working class, which my dad was a member of.
Scaramucci’s dad was a Long Island construction worker and a union member. His union wages paid for his son’s Tufts University education. Unions, now a sapped and withered version of what they were during Scaramucci’s childhood, will almost undoubtedly come out of Trump’s first term even weaker than they went into it (radically weaker, if a federal Right-to-Work law is passed). So will the economic power of the workers they represent, however “aspirational” they might be. The idea of a construction worker’s wages sustaining a middle class family and paying the private college tuition of a son who will go on to become a millionaire is already a distant and nostalgic memory. The redistributive postwar welfare state that made it possible was dismantled long ago; the economic team the Mooch is helping to put into place, along with Paul Ryan’s fiscal austerity measures, which Trump will undoubtedly sign into law, will ensure it is never rebuilt. Scaramucci’s rhetoric hits some vaguely populist-sounding notes, but they’re as empty as Trump’s.
For an angry electorate clamoring for change, Trump will have more of the same Wall Street poison that has kept wages stagnant or falling for four decades, under both Democratic and Republican administrations. Immigrant scapegoating and stimulative deficit spending might keep his administration’s popularity afloat for the short term, but if he really goes down this road, eventually there will have to be a reckoning with his abandoned base. Those voters already feel betrayed by both the Democratic and the Republican establishments. When they find themselves jilted by Trump, too, they’ll have few places to turn.
That moment will be an opening for the left, if the left is prepared to take it.